Renewable: Sustainable Solution for Ensuring Energy Security

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Bangladesh is one of the fastest developing countries in South Asia. It is also one of the most densely populated countries, having a population density of around 1079 per km2. The average annual GDP growth rate was 6.4% between 2017 to 2021, with a peak of 7.88% observed in 2019. According to the Government of Bangladesh (GoB), GDP is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2016 to 2041.  According to Revised PSMP 2016, the installed capacity in Bangladesh will reach over 70GW by 2041 in low case scenario which includes about 25GW coal-fired power projects. Given the recent situations and international trends surrounding fossil-based power plants coupled with the growing uncertainty of fuel prices, GOB has set a roadmap to add more renewable energy-based generation units in order to ensure the country’s long term energy security & sustainability.

Bangladesh has been dependent on fossil fuels for its electricity generation and continued reliance will require an increase in fossil fuel imports to satisfy the growing electricity demand due to limited domestic reserves. A high contingency on imported gas, coal and oil will not only add economic pressure on Bangladesh, but also raise serious questions on its long-term energy security with the ongoing volatile nature of the international market as conventional energy prices continues to soar. Moreover, as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to be impacted by the threats of rising sea levels on its low-lying areas attributed to global warming, dependence on fossil fuel may put Bangladesh in a precarious position in terms of erosion of trust on its government’s commitment towards addressing global warming challenges. Specifically, studies show that about 1 m sea level rise will submerge one-fifth of the country’s land mass, which might dramatically increase climate change refugees in the coming decades, displacing millions of individuals and communities from their homes. In addition, concentration of human population is steeply rising since 2010 and about 100 thousand people die each year due to the increase in air pollution. The above facts obligate countries such as Bangladesh to take more of a proactive approach towards transitioning to renewable energy.

Currently, renewable energy is gaining momentum in the global energy mix, which is seen as a low-risk option in comparison to fossil fuels. This is mainly attributed to the expected cost decline, of the main renewable energy technologies, such as PV, wind, etc. Additionally, the levelized cost of electricity from renewable resources has become cost competitive with fossil fuel electricity generation. These factors have triggered a positive outlook towards renewable energy technologies all around the world. Several studies have reported that the technical feasibility and economic viability of 100% renewable energy systems for various parts of the world, e.g. Finland, Denmark, Australia, Israel, India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc. are possible with the decreasing costs every year.

For Bangladesh, renewable energy sources could provide as a viable alternative in tackling energy shortages, energy security and long-term energy planning with reduced GHG emissions, whilst complying with climate change targets. Bangladesh is a developing country that is highly dependent on fossil fuels for its electricity generation and its future energy policy is inclined towards the imports of fossil fuels. It also lies in a region with high solar potential, hence its future energy supply could have a large share of solar PV and wind.

Bangladesh has good renewable energy potential, especially in solar energy. Bangladesh receives an average solar irradiation of around 1095-1460 kWh/ (w/m2) and has the potential to generate 380 TWh of electricity, which shall require about 10% of the total land area of Bangladesh (excluding area under agricultural and forest cover). This potential is significantly higher than the present annual electricity demand and could satisfy the projected electricity needs. Bangladesh can follow its neighboring country India, where the cost of electricity generated from solar PV is currently amongst the lowest in the world, at about 3.5 USc/KWh. To realize the solar PV potential and cost competitiveness against fossil fuel power plants, India has set up target to install 100 GW by 2022 and 227 GW by 2027. Similarly, the Government of Bangladesh have initiated a number of programs to take advantage of its renewable energy potential. The renewable energy policy was adopted in 2008 with the aim to boost renewable power generation. In 2015, Bangladesh joined the International Solar Alliance to collaborate towards increased adoption of solar energy. The installation of solar home systems in off-grid areas has been booming since the last decade. So far, 263.47 MW of solar home systems have been installed. There were about 5 million solar home system (SHS) installations in 2017, for the benefit of 30 million people and has created 140,000 new jobs. Rooftop solar installations for commercial and residential buildings has been gaining popularity in recent years. For utility-scale solar PV, non-agricultural land owned by the government is being used, mainly to develop solar parks. Wind energy potential is around 340,000 MW in Bangladesh with its nearly 740 km long coastline and many small islands, where strong winds are present during the monsoon season (May-October). Municipal waste has the potential to become a good energy resource for Bangladesh. In 2021, 9,125,000 tons of municipal solid waste was produced in different municipalities. Bangladesh also has a large potential of biomass due to its agricultural economy. Agricultural and forest residues form a major component in its biomass potential. Moreover agricultural, municipal waste, industries, animals and other sources of waste can generate >950 TWhth of energy considering that all waste is recovered. In addition, 315 MW of small scale and large-scale hydropower plants can be installed in Bangladesh. To ensure long term energy security without burdening the economy or the environment, Bangladesh will need to stress on policies that will exploit these RE potentials.

SOLAR MINI GRID SYSTEM FOR THE CHAR AREA:

Bangladesh being a riverine country currently has about 405 rivers. Several small and large river islands (chars) have formed alongside areas that are bordered by rivers, lakes, seas, or oceans. Char or small river island is the generic name for the topography created by adsorption along a river's course or in its waterway. Chars are regarded in Bangladesh as a by-product of rivers' hydro-morphological motility. An international organization Irrigation Support Project for Asia and the Near East (ISPAN) discovered through a survey that chars which are not eroded or degraded in the first four years of their existence are more durable. Agriculture or habitation can begin in all the chars at the conclusion of these four years. The soil of these chars generated in the downstream regions are, in comparison, more productive and have a grain density of 150 to 185, which is near to the average grain density of the nation, according to a 1996 report by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). A recent analysis of a series of satellite images show that more than 99 percent of the land on the banks of the river Jamuna is made up of chars. In the last 26 years, between 1983 and 2000, the same analysis further showed that about 75% of these chars had disappeared within one to nine years. According to a 1993 census, the total population of the chars was about 631,000. Most of them (about 75%) live in different chars of Jamuna. The population of chars has increased by 47% in 1993 as compared to 1984. During the same period the population growth of the country was about 26 percent. As per these calculations, chars play a significant role in influencing human settlement.

It is now clear that this country, which has a larger population than its limited resources, will have to rely on pastures to cope with the food crisis in the near future. To cultivate on these char lands, there will be a larger need of electricity, which is an integral part for the national development as well. Electricity has already reached the urban, sub-urban and rural areas of Bangladesh. Even the village areas have been brought under 100% electricity. However, electrification of these isolated char areas remain a challenging and daunting task due to lack of sustainability and technical feasibility. Moreover, due to frequent soil erosion near the banks damage the facilities and infrastructure often leading to disconnection and even accidents making the maintenance and repair further challenging and taxing.

According to the Ministry of Power, 72 lakh home solar panels have been installed so far to supply electricity to remote areas. 273 MW electricity is being generated through these solar panels. 20 million people have come under the power facility through these solar panel systems. In 2020, 96.2% percent of the people in the country got access to electricity.

If small isolated solar power plants could be set up in these char areas which would only supply electricity to these areas, then the approach could be more sustainable. It is not possible for everyone to install home solar panel being relatively expensive and difficult to maintain. People in such regions could readily get access to electricity and won't have maintenance issues. Additionally, the cost would be rather minimal as there won't be the need to install a lot of transmission lines and it is much simpler to maintain such short transmission line which also has a longer life. Even if the connections were disrupted due to any reason, it is a quick and easy fix as the coverage area is small. Such solar mini grid system can be dismantled and replaced from one place to another with minimal effort resulting as a sustainable alternative for char areas.

There would also be a lot of system loss with transmission line from power substation in the main lands to the chars which can be avoided with this alternative. Additionally, the char regions receive a lot of sunlight throughout the day, residents there could have access to energy at night if the power could be stored in the plants by using battery. Therefore, using electricity from a solar power plant rather than a household solar panel is more economic, sustainable and beneficial for them. The household solar panel can produce only a limited quantity of power and is difficult to upgrade should someone need extra energy in any case.  With a solar mini grid this energy is not limited. Lastly, it could be argued that solar mini grids are the best and most sustainable alternatives to bring these chars under full power coverage. Solar mini grids could prove to be the safest, least expensive and most convenient way for the people of such areas.

As a developing nation, Bangladesh needs to transition from traditional or conventional energy sources in order to ensure its energy security & long term sustainability in the near future. However, given the unique geography of Bangladesh and its landscape for achieving 100% electrification across all communities Solar Mini Grid should be considered as a great alternative which can also prove to be a more viable option.

Engr. Md. Mozammel Hossain
Managing Director
Summit Gazipur II Power Limited &
Summit Ace Alliance Power Limited